Instant Offense
(Ed. Note: Fancypants, our resident “handicapper” will be bringing you golden nuggets of gambling goodness on a semi-regularly scheduled basis)
I’m not sure what it is about the NBA playoffs that turns mediocre gamblers into handicapping gods, but there’s certainly something there. Every year, after a long and disappointing run in the NFL and college, full of what we like to call “Payout Tuesdays,” these magical two months come along and provide just enough of a boost to our confidence and savings account to keep us coming back for another year. I’d like to present a theory as to why going Vinnie Johnson during the playoffs is so common.
** SPOILER ALERT ** If you are not interested in de-pantsing your local bookie and paddling his bare ass on the NBA playoffs, please stop reading.
Honestly, I don’t follow the NBA nearly enough to feel confident betting games during the regular season. Running a fantasy team and giving a cursory glance to the standings is about all the time I’m willing to invest. However, when the playoffs come around, this doesn’t seem to matter. The only explanation that comes to mind is the combination of the lines being relatively low and the winner of any individual game being relatively easy to pick. With the lines in the playoffs usually hovering at 6 or 7 and below, if you can pick the correct winner of the game you’ve also got a pretty decent shot at covering as well. This is obvious if you take the underdog but is most applicable to small favorites. This is also why I don’t like taking a team unless I think they can win the game – it’s like you’re betting a window rather than just on a side.
With this in mind, a consortium of nickel-and-dimers here will be working together to provide picks throughout the rest of the playoffs. Keep in mind that these picks will not have any real analysis attached to them, only topical knowledge of what’s going on as the series progresses. It’s worked for years now and the 2007 playoffs are no different– why not keep it going?
Tonight: Pistons -6.5. We’ve been riding the Pistons throughout the playoffs – no reason to stop now. Let’s make LeBron and company come in and keep this game close. If he can, hats off, but I’m banking on the Cavs having a little of the “happy to be here” feeling during game one and the Pistons blowing them out just like the Pistons-Bulls Game 1.
{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
B, your boy Ben Bloodworth called and wants his “payout Tuesdays” back. On a sidenote, he introduces himself as Ben Bloodworth “manager of Nelson’s”. I swear to fucking God.
Thanks Deez. No real reason to eat dinner if it’s going to come back up 10 minutes later.
So far, so good…
so are we to take the opposite of what you predict?
Exactly. I’m not phased though – the game last night did more to support the theory than anything else – the Pistons didn’t play that well, trailed most of the game and still had a couple of chances to cover at the end. I still say pick the winner of each game and the rest will take care of itself.
(Does that read as desparate as I feel typing it? OF COURSE you take the opposite of whatever I pick).
Going with the Spurs -6.5 tonight – don’t see the Jazz winning.
The Jazz are the mortal lock of the century at +6.5.
The real question is, with me endorsing the opposite, is Fancypants a lock to cover? (I think so.)